Строительство в экономике Великобритании - преимущества инвестиций

Based on the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan, investment in construction is a prerequisite for achieving c.80% of the

current emission reduction targets

Construction represents an investment that will generate long-term benefits for the country

- building new schools has been considered as an example

A conservative estimate suggests that £1 invested in school construction could generate c.£1–2 of economic impact

for the UK economy in the long term through higher educational attainment by the pupils taught there

Combining the economic effects, a £1 investment in construction (in the example of a new school) would have a net

cost of only c. £0.44 to the Government for a total benefit of £3.87–5.04

3UK Contractors Group.  Construction in the UK economy. 27

Under this plan, construction can play an important role

in addressing 79% of total reductions in emissions

492

603

776

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

173

52

19

22

13

5

MtCO2

e

Based on the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan, investment in construction is a

prerequisite for achieving c.80% of the current emission reduction targets

Note: *Net change includes impact of EU Emission Trading System

Source: DECC (April 2009); ‘The UK Renewable Energy Strategy’, DECC (July 2009); L.E.K. analysis

32%

18%

37%

An 18% emission reduction from 2008 levels is

required to achieve budget target for 2022

The Government is expecting new buildings to play a

key role in the reduction of carbon emissions. It has

set Zero Carbon targets for new buildings:

- 2016 for all new homes

- 2016 for all new schools

- 2018 for all public sector buildings

- 2019 for all new buildings

This will form a significant part of the reductions

included in homes and communities

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive will

also be important in reducing the emissions from

workplaces and jobs

The Government is also committed to obtaining 15% of

its electricity from renewable sources by 2020, around

70% of which is projected to come from wind farms,

requiring a six-fold increase in output from wind

47%

79% of the reduction

Carbon equivalent abatement required to meet 2018-22

carbon budget

Homes and

communities

Transport

Power and

heavy

industry

2008 Net

Total*

1990-2008

Change

1990

Total

Workplaces

and jobs

Farming,

land and

waste

2022 Net

Total*

Benefits of investment in constructionUK Contractors Group.  Construction in the UK economy. 28

Construction represents an investment that will generate long-term benefits for the

country – example: building new schools

Note: * Calculated based on an assumed 1% increase in the proportion of students achieving 5 or more A*-C GCSEs from the 2008

baseline of 65%. Lifetime earning potential increase is calculated from the average of those with currently no qualification or other

qualifications, and those with those with 5 A*-C GCSEs and GCSE A-Level equivalent. This is a conservative estimate as it caps

pupils’ earning potential at that of people with only 5 A*-C GCSEs and those with GCSE A-Level equivalent

Source: ‘Evaluation of Building Schools for the Future – 2nd Annual Report’, DCSF (December 2008); NAO; Partnership for Schools;

LSC; L.E.K. analysis

Background

Long-run

policy

objectives

Illustrative

estimate of longterm benefits

Building new schools

A schools capital programme began in 2005 with the aim of refurbishing or rebuilding all 3,500 of

England’s secondary schools. Continuation of the investment programme is still dependent on

future budget allocations

Improved educational attainment by pupils

(in terms of GCSE results)

Increased lifetime earnings per student of

£600- £1,300* (Present value)

Improved health (from better sports and

kitchen facilities)

Regeneration of areas of high social

deprivation

Quantification

of outcome

Student performance at newly built schools

to date has been varied; however, the uplift

in the proportion of students achieving 5 or

more A*-C GCSEs can be up to 15%

Outcomes have not been quantified

Impacts have not been estimated

Benefits of investment in constructionUK Contractors Group.  Construction in the UK economy. 29

A conservative estimate suggests that £1 invested in school construction could

generate c. £1–2 of economic impact for the UK economy in the long term through

higher educational attainment

Source: ONS, LSC, L.E.K. analysis

There will be additional savings as a result of increased employment in other sectors of the economy;

however, this has not been estimated

Indirect + Not valued

induced

Estimated reduction in government benefits (job seekers’  allowance, housing benefits, tax credits) associated

with increased construction employment

Savings in Direct £0.23

allowance

payments

Short-term output impact £2.84 Construction generates one of the highest immediate-term output impacts relative to other sectors

Regeneration

Improved

health

Improved

educational

attainment

Indirect +

induced

Direct

Induced

Indirect

Direct

£0.44 of government investment in construction (£1 net of tax benefits) would generate an additional

c.£3.87–5.04 worth of economic output throughout the UK economy over a 30-year period

Long term multiplier c.£3.87–5.04

Better health facilities, better kitchen facilities, and improved indoor and outdoor environments can potentially

lead to better staff and student health; however, the impact has not been estimated

Not valued

Short-term Exchequer £0.56 Excludes savings from government benefits from additional indirect and induced employment in the economy

impact

The exchequer receives c.£0.12 in income tax and NI from the increase in wage levels associated with the

increase in construction activities, and £0.01 in corporation tax from contractors; assumes no stamp duty is

collected on the new school building

Tax impact £0.13

£1.09 £1 investment in construction generates an additional £1.09 of demand within the UK economy

Not valued

£1.03-£2.20

£0.20

£0.75

£1

Valuation (PV)

Estimated based on an assumed 1% uplift (with a gradual tapering effect) in pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE

grades (from a baseline of 65.3% in 2008) over 30 years, and that pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades have

lifetime earning potential that is 10–23% higher than those with minimum qualifications

Long term

impact

Regeneration is one of the goals of the school investment programme, but the impact has not been quantified

Estimated increase in household and corporation tax receipts associated with the indirect and induced

employment and output impacts associated with the construction investment

Subsequent impacts on the overall demand for products and services in the UK economy as a result of

increased household incomes associated with the direct and indirect increases in output

Output £1 investment in building a school generates £1 of additional output in the construction sector

impact to

the

economy

Impact Description

Benefits of investment in constructionUK Contractors Group.  Construction in the UK economy. 30

Combining the economic effects, a £1 investment in construction (of a new school)

would have a net cost of only c. £0.44 to the Government for a total benefit of £3.87-5.04

Note: Assumes no stamp duty is paid for the newly constructed school

Source: ONS; L.E.K. analysis

Treasury

impact

Impact Example: Investment in school construction (new build) ILLUSTRATIVE Total impact

£1 expenditure

Increased

income tax, NI

and

corporation tax

receipts

Savings in

benefits

allowance

Increase in UK construction output

(direct impact)

Short-term

economywide

impact

Indirect impact

Increased

income tax, NI

and

corporation tax

receipt

Savings in

benefits

allowance

Induced

impact

Net

£0.44

expenditure

£2.84

Long term

benefits

Increase in education sector

output

Increase in

educational

attainment

Other health and

regeneration benefits

Increase in lifetime

earnings

£1.03–£2.20

Key: £ £ £ Estimated present value of impact Pres £ ent value of impact excluded from the current analysis £3.87–£5.04

£1 £0.13 £0.23

£1.09 £0.75

£0.20 £?

Quality of life and

wider social and

economic benefits

£1.03–2.20

£?

Government

investment in

school

construction

Benefits of investment in constructionUK Contractors Group.  Construction in the UK economy. 31

Government investment in construction is the most beneficial use of stimulative

public expenditure in both the short and longer term, and any reduction in

construction expenditure would have significant, immediate and enduring negative

consequences for the UK

Construction in the UK economy

Impact on economic activity

- Construction is one of the best ways of stimulating economic activity – not just in the construction sector, but across the economy as a whole, including troubled manufacturing sectors. It also has one of the lowest levels of imports, so the stimulus spending stays within the national economy

Contribution to employment

- Construction is the best sector for stimulating employment. The employment that construction provides benefits lower skilled and young workers who have relatively few alternative opportunities. Many regions are heavily dependent on construction jobs

Benefits of investment

- Construction is not only immediate economic production, it is also investment rather than consumption,

which provides significant long-term economic and social benefits

1

2

3UK Contractors Group.  Construction in the UK economy. 32

About UKCG and L.E.K. Consulting

The UK Contractors Group (UKCG) represents

leading contractors and their trade associations

operating in the UK on construction specific issues.

Its mission is to represent contractors’ interests to

government and key clients and to encourage

contractors to work together to promote change and

best practice, especially on health and safety and

environmental issues. UKCG also works closely with

the CBI Construction Council to ensure that

contractors’ interests are properly reflected in the

wider business agenda.

L.E.K. Consulting is an international management

consultancy and a leading adviser to the UK construction

and building products sectors.

Specialising in strategy, transaction support and

performance improvement consulting, L.E.K. has built a

reputation for helping businesses to resolve their most

complex commercial issues, deliver improved business

performance and enhance shareholder returns.  Its clients

include the largest private and public sector organisations,

private equity firms and smaller, more entrepreneurial

businesses.

Founded in 1983, L.E.K. has 20 offices and over 850 staff

across the world.  In 2007, L.E.K. Consulting was awarded

the Queen’s Award for Enterprise for its achievements in

international trade.